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November
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Weekly Markets Diary – 11 November

Week Ahead

The US CPI was clearly the major news for last week, with the surge of optimism after the slight beat, positive but also concerning as often bear market rallies can have the sharpest daily gains. Traditionally stock markets find it difficult to find a bottom until the retail investor have been knocked out.

On Thursday many of the meme stock regulars, GameStop, AMC etc posting very strong gains on the day, suggesting that many of the buyers involved in the CPI based exuberance were retail traders once again ready to take things “to the moon”.

Regrettably this may mean that even if we are able to post a medium-term recovery from here, we may not yet have seen the long-term bottom. In order to feel confident that a long-term low has been posted we may need to see at least another month of lower CPI numbers in December, and also a more direct signal from the Fed that it is indeed prepared to slow the rate of rate hikes ahead. Else we still do run the risk of remaining in hope over actual data territory.

The US corporate reporting season continues to wind down with most of the S&P 500 having now reported, but we still have a few consumer facing groups due next week, Gap, Home Depot and Macy’s amongst them, which could give an indication on how the US consumer is holding up in the cost-of-living crisis and ahead of the key retailing quarter ahead.

Trading Calendar

Monday 14th November

Major Companies Reporting:

US: Eversource Energy, Tyson Foods

UK:  Informa

Germany:

Major Economic Data Due:

Mo Major Data Due

Tuesday 15th November

Major Companies Reporting:

US: Home Depot

UK: BAE Systems, Land Securities, Imperial Brands, Vodafone

Germany: Infineon

Major Economic Data Due:

10:00 EZ Q3 flash GDP, 2.1% expected, 2.1% previous

13:30 US October PPI inflation, 8.5% previous

Wednesday 16th November

Major Companies Reporting:

US: Lowe’s Cos, TJX

UK: Experian, Sage, SSE

Germany: Siemens Energy

Major Economic Data Due:

07:00 UK October CPI, 10.8% expected, 10.1% previous

13:30 US October Retail Sales, 0.8% expected, 0.0% previous

Thursday 17th November

Major Companies Reporting:

US: Gap, Kohl’s Corp, Macy’s Inc

UK: Burberry, Halma, Royal Mail

Germany: Siemens AG

Major Economic Data Due:

10:00 EZ October Inflation, final, y/y, 10.7% expected, 10.7% previous

13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims, 217k previous

13:30 US October Housing Starts m/m, 1.42m expected, 1.44m previous

Friday 18th November

Major Companies Reporting:

US:

UK:  

Germany:

Major Economic Data Due:

07:00 UK October Retail Sales, -6.9% previous

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