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December
CFDs trading
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3
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Weekly Markets Diary – 16 December

Week Ahead

There is a very slow corporate news week due as the market traditionally slows down into the holidays. Although we do have some fairly significant economic data due though, with US consumer confidence numbers on Wednesday and durable goods orders on Friday, which can move the markets if numbers come out significantly away from the expectations.

So the psychology for the week ahead is largely going to be the markets continuing to come to terms with the raft of central bank rate announcements we have just had. All equity markets posted a strong move lower in the Autumn on concerns that inflation was not only at decade long highs, but even running away further out of control and that central bank would be forced to keep hiking rates to levels not seen for decades.

However, in recent weeks more confidence has built that while inflation remains at historically very high levels it may now have peaked. Meaning that central banks may soon be able to slow the pace of rate hikes and even start to cut them at some point in 2023. This has posted some sizable gains in markets in recent weeks. Had this tone been fully justified we could have expected more sense of central banks easing in their recent comments.

So far only the Bank of England has come out and stated that UK inflation has probably peaked. Both the Fed and ECB stayed hawkish. Causing some of the recent optimism to cool in recent hours causing the US indices to drop 2-3% yesterday alone. The longer-term outlook for 2023 continues to improve it is just that perhaps we have seen to much hope priced into the market already.

Leaving what could remain a fairly volatile market through the holidays, as more value orientated investors will be keen to wait for yet more evidence that inflation has turned, against the optimism of more growth orientated investors that are looking through the near term data already to the future when central bank will eventually be able to start pausing and then cutting rates.

Trading Calendar

Monday 19th December

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500:

UK 100:

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

No Major Data Due

Tuesday 20th December

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500:

UK 100:

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

13:30 US November Housing Starts n/n, 1.42m expected

Wednesday 21st December

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500:

UK 100: Bunzl

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

15:00 US December Consumer Confidence, 100 expected, 100.2 previous

Thursday 22nd December

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500:

UK 100:

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims, 211k previous

Friday 23rd December

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500:

UK 100:

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

13:30 US November Durable Goods Orders, 1.1% previous

15:00 US November new home sales units, 0.61m expected, 0.63m previous

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