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November
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Weekly Markets Diary – 18 November

Week Ahead

The consensus has shifted so that the Fed is now only expected to hike rates by 50bp ahead in December, but that the terminal rate could still be as high or even a fraction higher than the previous expectations.

The equity markets posted some extreme moves higher on this “pivot” although in reality it is much less of a pivot and more of a slowdown. The US Tech 100 gained a hefty 7.5% on the day of the CPI print which acted as the main catalysts for this shift in expectations. A historic daily move. The issue is that extreme moves higher like this can often occur in bear market rallies.

The buying momentum has cooled in recent days with some Wall Street analysts already calling for moves lower in the days and weeks ahead once the initial exuberance has cooled.

The US corporate reporting season has now largely passed, keeping the major focus on inflation expectations and comments from policy makers for the week ahead. Will the pause in buying momentum to lead to a profit taking snap lower?

Trading Calendar

Monday 21st November

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500: Agilent, Jacobs Engineering, JM Smucker

UK 100: Compass Group

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

No Major Data Due

Tuesday 22nd November

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500: Analog Devices, Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Nordstrom, Medtronic

UK 100: CRH, Severn Trent

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

No Major Data Due

Wednesday 23rd November

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500: Deere & Co

UK 100: Johnson Matthey, United Utilities

Germany 40: Vonovia

Major Economic Data Due:

13:30 US October Durable Goods orders 0.4% expected, 0.4% previous

13:30 US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, 222k previous

15:00 US October New Homes Sales units m/m, 0.57m expected, 0.6m previous

Thursday 24th November

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500:

UK 100: Intertek, Kingfisher

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

No Major Data Due

Friday 25th November

Major Companies Reporting:

US 500:

UK 100:

Germany 40:

Major Economic Data Due:

07:00 Germany Q3 Detailed GDP y/y, 1.1% expected, 1.1% previous

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